Report warns climate crisis could cost London up to £15bn a year by 2050

Central London Forward research cites more frequent and severe heatwaves, floods and drought will hit people’s health as well as the economy, reports Kumail Jaffer, Local Democracy Reporter

The impacts of climate change will cost London up to £15billion a year by 2050 unless drastic action is taken at all levels of government, a new report warns.

More frequent and severe heatwaves, floods, and drought in the coming decades will all hit both the health and wallets of Londoners, according to research from Central London Forward (CLF), a partnership of the twelve most central local authorities in the capital.

London has been particularly affected by record breaking temperatures both last and this summer due to the ‘urban heat island’ (UHI) effect, which can make the city seem ten degrees hotter than it is due to the density of buildings trapping heat.

However, the Greater London Authority (GLA) and boroughs can take steps to address both the causes and symptoms of climate change, CLF says.

This includes greatly expanding green infrastructure – parks, gardens, woodlands, rivers and wetlands, including urban trees and planted roofs – in order to absorb heat, create cooler spaces for residents and reduce the impact of flooding.

However, research suggests that such green spaces are often seen as ‘soft targets’ for local authority funding cuts because there are no statutory requirements around them.

Boroughs would do well to look to Elephant Park in Southwark, the authors said, which is one of the largest new green spaces in central London in 70 years. Despite being expensive to maintain, CLF argues that the benefits are well worth it.

Mass retrofitting of social housing should also be one of the GLA’s top priorities, the report said, though with over a million homes needing attention, funding is likely to be an issue.

It’s a similar story when it comes to flood resilience. City Hall say that London has “outgrown” its drains and sewers built over 150 years ago, which officials note were “designed for a smaller city with more green surfaces.”

“The combined challenges of London’s growing population, changing land uses and changing climate mean that if we continue to rely on our current drains and sewers, we face an increasing risk of flooding,” they said.

To combat this, the GLA’s surface water strategy looks to replace surfaces with ‘permeable paving’ and install sustainable drainage systems (Suds) across streets, schools and housing estates – but the CLF say that such initiatives “can be difficult to fund and deliver at the scale and pace needed”.

The report does praise the GLA for its Cool Spaces Network – which designates certain libraries, leisure centres, and shaded parks as public cooling areas – but notes that the “general public is often unaware of their benefit or existence, and it is difficult to establish enough spaces to make a difference”.

As a whole, CLF said there must be a legislative responsibility for local authorities who do not have the “strength and political will” to act voluntarily to undertake future-proofing measures against climate change. This would include embedding climate change as a “priority in planning decisions” and giving it the same weight as energy efficiency and net zero.

This would require secure, long-term funding for adaptation projects that boroughs are able to bid for on a non-competitive basis.

Charlie Rainsford, assistant director of policy and external affairs at CLF, told the Local Democracy Reporting Service (LDRS): “The effects of climate breakdown are already being felt in central London, with severe thunderstorms and heatwaves in the space of 24 hours.

“It is vital that we make central London more climate resilient so that we can keep people safe, support businesses and maintain London’s place as an attractive place for visitors.

“However, the responsibility for action currently falls on local authorities, without any sustainable funding or a common framework. We are calling for long-term, consistent and devolved funding for adaptation projects and embedding adaptation in planning policy.”

City Hall sources pointed out that the Mayor has funded the planting of more than 640,000 trees since 2016, including two major woodland creation projects, alongside the creation or improvement of 900 hectares of green space

A spokesperson for Mayor of London Sir Sadiq Khan told the LDRS: “Extreme heat is becoming more common and more intense as a result of the climate crisis and Londoners are already experiencing more frequent heatwaves, including last week’s rare red heat health alert.

“That’s why City Hall is working closely with boroughs, health services, TfL, emergency services and community organisations to plan how to mitigate the effects of climate change and is why we’ve established a network of free cool spaces, thousands of water refill points and drinking fountains across the capital.

“Last week, the mayor launched Heat Ready London, a long-term vision bringing together partners to help our city adapt to rising temperatures, protect vulnerable Londoners, strengthen critical infrastructure and ensure our communities remain resilient in the decades ahead.”

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