The MRP poll for More in Common predicts Labour will get the biggest share of the vote in the borough on just 28% reports David Floyd

Hendon Town Hall with (inset left) council leader Barry Rawlings and (inset right) opposition group leader Peter Zinkin — Hendon Town Hall with (inset left) Labour council leader Barry Rawlings and (inset right) Conservative leader Peter Zinkin

It may not be immediately obvious who will run Barnet after this week’s election as a newly published latest opinion poll forecasts a narrow victory for Labour in the borough.

The MRP poll for think tank More in Common, which is published this morning, predicts that Barry Rawlings will lead Barnet Labour to 28% of the vote on Thursday, a drop of 15% from their result at the last election in 2022.

However, despite this huge drop in support for Labour, the Conservatives are also predicted to lose ground on 24%, with big increases in support for the Greens (16%) and the Liberal Democrats (12%).

Reform UK, who didn’t run at all in the borough in 2022, are predicted to come third on 17%.

It is difficult to judge the likely level of accuracy of opinion polling at a borough level, particularly in terms of potential differences between the party people say they support nationally and how they may vote in a specific local contest.

However, it does seem likely that Barnet is heading for a result where there are at least four, and potentially five, parties are represented at the town hall after the election – and it’s even possible that independents could spring a surprise in one or two wards.

This could lead to a variety of possible post-election outcomes, ranging from Labour hanging on to power with a small majority despite its low vote share, to multi-party coalitions or minority administrations led by either Labour or the Conservatives.

One way or another, it’s not going to be boring.

Information on how and where to vote is available here.

No news is bad news

Independent news outlets like ours – reporting for the community without rich backers – are under threat of closure, turning British towns into news deserts.

The audiences they serve know less, understand less, and can do less.

If our coverage has helped you understand our community a little bit better, please consider supporting us with a monthly, yearly or one-off donation.

Choose the news. Don’t lose the news.

Monthly direct debit

Annual direct debit

£5 per month supporters get a digital copy of each month’s paper before anyone else, £10 per month supporters get a digital copy of each month’s paper before anyone else and a print copy posted to them each month. £50 annual supporters get a digital copy of each month's paper before anyone else. £84 annual supporters get a print copy by post and a digital copy of each month's before anyone else.