New poll gives Khan ‘commanding’ 13-point lead in mayoral race

Labour incumbent looks set to be heading for a record third team at City Hall, reports Noah Vickers, Local Democracy Reporter

Sadiq Khan (credit Noah Vickers/LDRS)
Sadiq Khan (credit Noah Vickers/LDRS)

A new poll has shown Sadiq Khan with a “commanding” 13-point lead over his Tory rival Susan Hall, with just three weeks until the London mayoral election.

The survey by Redfield and Wilton Strategies puts the Labour mayor on 43%, with Hall on 30%.

The pollster last reported, in September last year, that Khan had a lead of just one point over Hall – suggesting his relative popularity has risen since the immediate aftermath of his contentious Ulez expansion in August 2023.

The new poll puts the Green Party’s Zoe Garbett in third place on 10%, with the Liberal Democrats’ Rob Blackie on 8% and Reform UK’s Howard Cox on 7%.

Although Mr Khan’s winning margin of 13 points over Ms Hall is narrower than other polls since the new year – which have given him leads of 18-25 points – a direct comparison should be treated with caution due to differing methodologies used.

Redfield and Wilton said their poll shows Mr Khan holds “a commanding lead” and “appears well on course for re-election to an historic third term”.

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a mayoral election are included, Khan leads Hall by 11%.

The poll suggests that the mayor is on course to retain the support of 73% of those who gave him their first preference vote in the 2021 election, when the election was run under a supplementary vote system.

Some eight per cent of his 2021 supporters would now vote for Hall and a further 8% for either Garbett (4%) or Blackie (4%).

Hall, meanwhile, retains the support of 67% of those who voted for the previous Conservative candidate – Shaun Bailey – as their first preference in 2021. Some nine per cent of his voters at that election now say they would vote for Khan, and a further 16% for either Blackie (7%), Mr Cox (6%), or Garbett (3%).

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