Cleaning up London's air pollution could prevent 44,000 premature deaths by 2050

While City Hall has made progress on air quality in recent years the capital still lags behind other UK cities, reports Kumail Jaffer, Local Democracy Reporter

Further investment in cleaning up London’s air could see 44,000 fewer premature deaths and £2.2billion added to the capital’s economy by 2050, new research has estimated.

Reaching ‘net zero’ – defined as cutting emissions to a low enough level that any man-made activity does not add to the atmosphere – through decarbonisation across transport, buildings, industry and power generation would deliver major health and economic gains across the UK.

The Climate Change Committee (CCC) has laid out a “balanced pathway” plan to achieve this by 2050, which the government has a legal duty to adhere to.

A new report published by Clean Air Fund, with research commissioned from CBI Economics and WSP, says sticking to the target will yield significant benefits for London in particular.

Despite nitrogen dioxide pollution (NO2) falling to within legal limits for the first time since records began last October, the capital’s baseline pollution levels are still far higher than other UK cities.

Recent figures from the Geographic Data Service also show that all of the most polluted areas of the country are in London, and an area in Camden covering parts of Holborn, St Giles, and Covent Garden is the most polluted neighbourhood nationally.

Residents there are breathing in an annual average of nearly 21 micrograms of fine particulate matter and more than 34 micrograms of NO2. The World Health Organization recommends levels should not exceed an annual average of five micrograms of PM2.5 and 15 micrograms of NO2.

For these reasons, the ‘clean air dividend’ is “more concentrated” in the city, the authors of the Clean Air Fund report said, meaning London will see greater benefit from cleaning up its act than other areas.

They added: “London’s elevated baseline pollution levels mean that the health and economic returns from reducing emissions are proportionally greater than for the UK.”

Predictive modelling estimates that London will see 533,000 life-years gained, including nine million additional working days – a significant boost to the city’s productivity.

Nick Smith, Clean Air Fund’s head of UK Portfolio, told the Local Democracy Reporting Service (LDRS): “We looked at if the UK follows through with their net zero plans, what the impact would be on air quality and then quantifying that in terms of air quality and health quality.

“There is a significant improvement shown to both health and the economy. It would improve workforce health, extend working lives and reduce illness-related absences. In London, we’ve found that there is a really significant impact due to high pollution levels, meaning it really feels the benefits. ”

Sir Sadiq Khan has made cleaning up London’s air a key policy tenet during his decade in City Hall.

This includes implementing measures such as the Ultra-Low Emissions Zone (Ulez), Congestion Charge and an overall push towards active travel and public transport instead of private car usage.

In 2016, leading experts at King’s College London estimated that without additional action it would take 193 years for London to meet legal NO2 limits, but City Hall was able to bring levels down to the necessary amount within nine years.

However, campaigners say he can still go further yet. In May Khan admitted that London would not be a net zero city by 2030, an aim laid out in 2020, partly due to a lack of devolved control over the capital’s energy grid.

“The mayor has shown really strong leadership on this issue and has delivered good results,” Smith said.

“That’s due to a range of policies and measures, including Ulez, which has been really transformative, and electrification of the bus and taxi fleet. He has also invested heavily in expanding cycling infrastructure. The public health outcomes are compelling.

“The job isn’t done – there is still more that can be done, and pollution levels are still above safe levels. Where he could go further is with vans and freights – the uptake of electric vans has been slower than other types of vehicles.

“Wood burning also remains an issue in London, but that is difficult to control. City Hall and local authorities are limited in what they could do.

“We need to be mindful of that – we are seeing that these effects are happening, and are managing this. Further focus and action is needed.”

A spokesperson for Khan told the LDRS: “The bold action taken by the Mayor in London has reduced pollution, improved public health, and saved lives. This report underlines the importance of improving air quality and supports the mayor’s decision to expand Ulez London-wide, where the evidence shows that it was crucial to protect the health and lives of Londoners.

“There is more work to do – long-term exposure to air pollution was still estimated to contribute to up to 5,100 premature deaths across London in 2024. The mayor remains committed to taking bold action to tackle air pollution and to protect the health of all Londoners as we continue to build a greener, fairer city for everyone.”

Local news needs your support

We are proud that we were at the forefront of reporting on the recent local elections. We can’t do this without the support of our readers.

Independent news outlets like ours – reporting for the community without rich backers – are under threat of closure, turning British towns into news deserts.

If our coverage has helped you understand our community a little bit better, please consider supporting us with a monthly, yearly or one-off donation.

ACT NOW!

Monthly direct debit

Annual direct debit

£5 per month supporters get a digital copy of each month’s paper before anyone else, £10 per month supporters get a digital copy of each month’s paper before anyone else and a print copy posted to them each month. £50 annual supporters get a digital copy of each month's paper before anyone else. £84 annual supporters get a print copy by post and a digital copy of each month's before anyone else.