David Floyd gives an overview of the contest in a seat that has only ever elected Conservative MPs

Result in 2019:

Theresa Villiers	Conservative	25,745 – 44.7%
Emma Whysall	Labour	24,533 – 42.6%
Isabelle Parasram	Liberal Democrats	5,963 – 10.3%
Gabrielle Bailey	Green	1,288 – 2.2%
John Sheffield	Advance	71 – 0.1%

Majority – 1,212 / 2.1%

Chipping Barnet saw the borough’s closest result at the last general election, when incumbent MP Theresa Villiers held off Labour councillor Emma Whysall by just 1,212 votes – having defeated her even more narrowly (353 votes) in 2017.

The Conservatives have held the seat since its creation in 1974 but it has been trending towards Labour in recent years, with only the combination of Labour’s generally poor performance – and the additional local unpopularity of then leader Jeremy Corbyn due to his approach to antisemitism – enabling Villiers to win in 2019.

Villiers, a former cabinet minister, has been an active MP campaigning hard on local issues including the ULEZ expansion and new housing developments. Her Labour challenger this time round is Dan Tomlinson, an economist with the Joseph Rowntree Foundation.

Boundary Commission changes have seen Conservative-held Edgwarebury ward incorporated into the constituency and the Labour-held Friern Barnet ward leaving it. This increases Villiers chances slightly but, unless the national picture changes dramatically, a Conservative victory in Chipping Barnet would be a huge surprise.

Statements from six of the seven candidates: Mark Durrant – Liberal Democrats, David Farbey – Green Party, Hamish Haddow – Reform UK, Richard Hewison – Rejoin EU, Dan Tomlinson – Labour and Theresa Villiers – Conservative.

Barnet Post approached Independent Kay Lauer for a statement but did not received a response.

Note: Barnet Post approached all candidates for the borough’s seats and offered them the opportunity to make a 250-word statement. The purpose of these statements is to give voters the clearest possible understanding of the perspectives of people who are asking for their support. In doing this, we acknowledge that some views expressed my cause offence and distress and apologise if this is the case.

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